In June 2024, EU citizens will head to the polls for the 10th time to elect their representatives in the European Parliament. While EP elections remain ‘second-order elections’in which national parties compete on the basis of domestic issues, the 2024 edition takes place in a particularly turbulent context that could significantly impact the vote. Given Russia’s war of aggression still raging in Ukraine the EU’s borders, the uncertain outcome of the US elections in November 2024, and heightened tensions between the US and China with all the multiple consequences of these crises and of the ongoing poly-transition – the stakes of the upcoming elections are arguably higher than ever before. The rumour mill is already in overdrive with warnings that the far-right is likely to shake the political establishment at the ballot box and take as much as a quarter of the seats in the next European assembly.
About the project From early 2024 to autumn, together with several European think tanks and research organisations we monitor, compare, and analyse on the basis of a common methodological approach the election campaigns and results in four major member states – France, Germany, Italy, and Poland. We also discuss the aggregated results from an EU-level perspective.
The project is conducted as a joint cooperation between
Das Progressive Zentrum (Berlin, Germany) and the European Policy Centre (Brussels, Belgium). In addition, it includes the following partner organisations: Istituto Affari Internazionali (Italy), Terra Nova (France) and Krytyka Polityczna (Poland), which provide specific expertise to allow for a fuller European perspective. The project is funded by Open Society Foundations.
The project identifies commonalities and differences in political issues and public debates across the EU. Moreover, it reveals ideological and issue-based cleavages and compares the attitudes of citizens in the different countries studied. It gives insights on how democracies are faring in key EU member states and the influential trends on EU decisions in the new policy cycle. It also looks at how the elections will impact the policy direction of the next European leadership, offering clues about the prospect of new initiatives and policy reforms, uncovering potential obstacles to treaty reforms, and indicating common positions among the four countries analysed. The research group also discusses the extent to which campaigns are linked to national issues or europeanised, and whether a connection can be drawn between turnout and electoral issues.
The project aims to:
- Create a uniquely European perspective on the election campaigns and results;
- Provide insights for the EU and national stakeholders who would like to improve and Europeanise the EP electoral processes;
- Europeanise the work of think tanks across Europe.