Listening to much of the language coming from the White House since Donald Trump’s inauguration, one is reminded of the Orwellian concept of double-speak: language that deliberately obscures, disguises and distorts. Liberation Day is a case in point – a raft of measures aimed firmly at destroying free and fair trade.
But Trump’s and his acolytes’ language is telling nevertheless. Apart from the obvious economic illiteracy, it reveals how they see tariffs against Europe: not in economic terms but as a matter of just punishment. They are not means to achieve an economic purpose but retribution, as well as aiming to deter and incapacitate the EU in future.
In this (warped) logic, responses from the EU are further hostile acts, which will call for more punishment, inevitably leading to further escalation. If a trade war does not produce the desired results, it will be followed by further threats or actions in other policy fields, including security.
Does that mean the EU should not respond? No reciprocity would simply be seen as weak, increasing the incentive for extortion. In addition, it would send a counterproductive signal to the rest of the world that Europe was no longer enforcing its principles. And there is some hope that the economic pain will lead to pushback from business, including from some people close to him. But Europe should have no illusion: the US President is out to punish the EU and the most likely path leads towards further escalation.
Fabian Zuleeg is Chief Executive and Chief Economist at the European Policy Centre.
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